Mi-a făcut plăcere să deschid reuniunea găzduită de Banca Națională a României, în 26 iunie, a Grupului de lucru pentru Prognoze Macroeconomice (Working Group on Forecasting - WGF), substructura Comitetului de Politică Monetară al Sistemului European al Băncilor Centrale, coordonată în calitate de președinte de João Sousa, director general adjunct al Directoratului General Economie al Băncii Centrale Europene.

Conform celor mai bune practici aprobate de Consiliul Guvernatorilor al BCE, comitetele Sistemului European al Băncilor Centrale sunt încurajate să își desfășoare una dintre reuniunile de lucru în afara sediului BCE din Frankfurt. Acceptarea de către Banca Centrală Europeană a invitației Băncii Naționale a României de a organiza reuniunea tematică a WGF din acest an, la București, reprezintă o recunoaștere a contribuției BNR la activitatea și obiectivele Sistemului European al Băncilor Centrale și, totodată, oportunitatea de face mai bine cunoscute atuurile, valorile și realizările noastre.

În continuare, mesajul transmis în deschiderea reuniunii WGF:

"Distinguished guests, Dear Deputy Director General, Dear colleagues,

It is my pleasure, in my capacity as Deputy Governor, to welcome the Working Group on Forecasting to the National Bank of Romania.

As we well know, the high-quality analyses and forecasts are essential for sound economic policy decisions. The last couple of years were particularly challenging. Strong and rapidly unfolding shocks have made monetary policy decisions unusually difficult.

The sequence of recent global crises – health, energy, geopolitics and trade - has placed substantial pressure on macroeconomic forecasting. At the same time, these shocks have created new opportunities. They have acted as real-time laboratories and have pushed us to expand the frontiers of economic understanding through rigorous research.

I am convinced that each of you has played a part in this progress, both within your own monetary authorities and through your contributions to this long-standing working group.

Uncertainty has become the rule, not the exception in your profession. Nevertheless, credibility has never been a secondary issue, but a key element for policy decision-making. Econometric models are challenged by shocks, structural shifts and nonlinear dynamics.

That is why you, as forecasters, need to stay flexible and continuously refine your tools. This, in turn, will enhance your contribution to public policy, both domestically and at the European level.

In this environment, cooperation is not just useful - it is essential. Sharing methodologies and insights across organizations make our forecasts more robust and policy decisions more effective.

The Working Group on Forecasting provides exactly this kind of platform and I am confident that your discussions here at the National Bank of Romania will lead to valuable progress.

As you will see during your meetings, our research agenda at the National Bank of Romania covers several regionally relevant topics – including for example, the economic impact of the war in Ukraine on Central and Eastern European countries.

Another initiative we’re proud of is Economic@NBR, our new platform for research and economic education, which has already drawn strong public interest on the first published study: European Romania – Developments, Progress, Challenges. A key message is that in the global context of the past decades, Romania’s accession to the European Union was a crucial step and the most important country project.

Regarding the European convergence, Romania complied with all the nominal criteria before the pandemic crisis. But, over the last years, inflation, long-term interest rates and the budget deficit have been above the reference values, following the shocks associated with the pandemic crisis and the excessive procyclical policies, in 2024.

Despite the current economic context, I am personally convinced that the next country project for Romania must be the Euro area accession, as soon as possible. Fortunately, Romania is committed now to get back to fiscal consolidation and macroeconomic stability, being the current context of the pro-European political majority.

Romania has an authentic European vocation, and we can contribute actively also to the monetary policy within the EU.

Ladies and gentlemen,

It is a special moment to host this meeting in the year the National Bank of Romania celebrates its 145th anniversary.

As the world’s 16th-oldest central bank, we are one of the key pillars of Romania’s economic and social development. We take pride in our legacy as a recognised model of stability, professionalism, and trust, and our intention is to keep this as our ”business card”. We have a dedicated team, and I am convinced that you have already known some of our best professionals.

With these in mind, I wish you productive and engaging sessions, meaningful discussions and an enjoyable stay in Bucharest over the next two days - we hope the programme and our hospitality efforts will make it a fruitful and memorable experience.

Have a good meeting and all the best!"